By Selwyn Duke

“Unprecedented and unethical.” So said late pollster Pat Caddell, commenting on a cooked October 2016 NBC/WSJ poll that showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 14 points less than a month before she would lose to him in that year’s presidential contest. Errant political polls are nothing new, and one general pattern is that they tend to underestimate Republican support — doing so in 2020 by four to five points.

And this year is no exception, says Randy Ellison, a public opinion and market research consultant and president of Targoz Market Research. Writing at The Hill recently, he asks, “Are we facing another big polling miss?” His answer: “Probably.”

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