Shell GameBy Selwyn Duke

There has been a recent deluge of articles claiming, citing studies, that “red” states flow red with blood — the blood of their lax gun policies’ victims. The data, indicating that conservative states have significantly higher homicide rates than liberal ones, have been widely touted by anti-Second Amendment activists as an argument for gun control. Their math is absolutely correct — but, as one observer puts it, their “parameters” are not.

In fact, their analysis reflects a comic-book (mis)understanding of the matter that overlooks relevant factors such as demographics, wealth, climate, and, quite significantly, the states’ actual gun-control policies.

One of the studies in question, presented at Third Way’s website, contrasted Biden-supporting and Trump-supporting states’ homicide rates, analyzing data from 2000 to 2020. The source then writes, “Altogether, the per capita Red State murder rate was 23% higher than the Blue State murder rate when all 21 years were combined.” One problem is already apparent:

Not all states that supported Biden in 2020 voted for Democratic presidential candidates for the entire data period. Georgia, for example, went GOP in every national election from 2000 through 2016.

Put differently, while Third Way essentially lists it as a “Democratic president” state, it was a “Republican president” state for 20 of the 21 years in question.

Yet there’s more.

Read the rest here.

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