It doesn’t make me happy to say it, but I believe that
Barack Obama will win re-election. In fact, I predicted this more than two
weeks ago here.
Now I’ll provide more detail and give you my prediction for how the Electoral College
will break down.
Let’s start with the obvious. It goes almost
without saying that Obama and Mitt Romney will carry the states in which they’re
strong. They are as follows.
Obama:
Washington, Oregon, California, New Mexico, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Maine, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland, Washington, DC, and Hawaii.
Total electoral votes: 201
Romney:
Arizona, Utah, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Indiana.
Total electoral votes: 191
Now we come to the 11 toss-up states. Here is how
I predict they will go.
Obama:
Wisconsin, 10; Michigan, 16; Ohio, 18; Pennsylvania, 20; Nevada, 6.
Total electoral votes: 70
Romney:
Colorado, 9; Iowa, 6; Florida, 29; North Carolina, 15; Virginia, 13; New Hampshire, 4.
Total electoral votes: 76
This would give Obama a narrow victory with 271 votes
(270 are needed to win), while Romney would fall 3 short at 267.
As I’ve said in the past, I hope I’m wrong and all
the conservative pundits are right. But I have to call it like I see it.
Good luck to Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, and God
bless America. If my prediction is correct, we’ll need all the blessings we can
get.
Contact Selwyn Duke or follow him on Twitter
© 2012 Selwyn Duke — All Rights Reserved



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